Solo bitcoin mining is basically a lottery: you’re hashing against the entire network, hoping to find the next valid block before everyone else does. This calculator estimates your chances of mining a Bitcoin block on your own.
💰 Block Reward
📊 Network Statistics
How it works
Every ten minutes or so, someone on the network finds a block - and Bitcoin’s difficulty adjustment keeps this timing fairly consistent. Your chance of being that someone is determined by your share of global hashrate. If you have 1 TH/s and the network has 1,000,000,000 TH/s, your odds per block are one in a billion.
The calculator uses the current network hashrate, recent block data, and the latest block reward (subsidy + fees) fetched from mempool.space. From that, it derives your expected time-to-win expressed as probabilities over various time periods.
A quick reality check: these are probabilities, not promises. A tiny Bitaxe miner could hit a block tomorrow and bag the whole reward for themselves. This does happen, and with surprising frequency! They might also mine for 500 years and get nothing. That’s the nature of proof-of-work (and the enormous amount of energy securing the Bitcoin network).
Solo mining isn’t about predictable income; it’s about taking a shot at the full block reward instead of sharing it among pool contributors. Here you can see the real odds for your hashrate.
Enjoy - and happy hashing.