The Bitcoin Rainbow Chart is a long-term, logarithmic view of Bitcoin’s price history, designed to show broad, long-term market patterns rather than short-term price action.
How it works
This Rainbow chart was built using Bitcoin’s full available daily price history, from mid-2010 through to the end of the 2025 calendar year. Price data is sourced from the CoinDesk composite Bitcoin price index (USD), using daily closing prices, with currency conversions performed using European Central Bank (ECB) daily reference exchange rates. The Bitcoin price line extends to the present day and is updated several times per week.
The coloured bands are based on a best-fit regression curve against time, capturing Bitcoin’s long-term growth trend while smoothing out short-term volatility and cyclical hype phases. They use fixed multipliers in log space, with each band representing a relative distance from the long-term trend. This allows price movements to be interpreted as “cheap”, “neutral”, or “expensive” relative to Bitcoin’s historic trajectory.
Importantly, the bands are not derived from halving dates, cycle counting, or forward-looking assumptions. They are mechanically generated from the aforementioned historical price data alone. The spacing and positioning of the bands is intentionally conservative, ensuring stability across time rather than responsiveness to recent price fluctuations.
The Rainbow Chart should not be used as a timing signal, trading strategy, or price forecast. Its value lies in helping answer a simpler question: where does the current price sit relative to Bitcoin’s long-term history?
In this sense, it provides perspective rather than predictions.
